Harris vs. Trump polls
Harris has a 0.9% lead based on 280 polls.
Oct 23, 2024
Harris
48.6%
Trump
47.7%
Estimate
95% of polls fall in this range
Polling average unskewer
Our 'unskewer' is a way to adjust for whatever bias you think is reflected in the polls. For example, if a Republican candidate is at 44% and a Democrat is at 42%, slide our 'unskewer' 2 point to the left and it will reduce the Republican candidate's margin by 2 points.
Rep. +0.9
Original Avg.
Rep. +0.9
Adjusted Avg.
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280 polls
Latest Poll: Wed, Oct 23, 6:24 AM EDT
Field Dates | Sample | Pollster | Results | Topline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 – 23 | 1,294 LV | TIPP Insights | 49.0%Harris 47.0%Trump | +2 Harris |
| Oct 22 | 1,500 LV | Redfield & Wilton St... | 47.0%Trump 45.0%Harris | +2 Trump |
| Oct 20 – 22 | 1,268 LV | TIPP Insights | 48.0%Trump 48.0%Harris | TIE |
| Oct 17 – 22 | 3,481 RV | Ipsos/Reuters | 46.0%Harris 43.0%Trump | +3 Harris |
| Oct 17 – 22 | 3,384 LV | Rasmussen Reports | 48.0%Trump 47.0%Harris | +1 Trump |
| Oct 19 – 21 | 1,244 LV | TIPP Insights | 48.0%Trump 47.0%Harris | +1 Trump |
| Oct 19 – 21 | 8,570 LV | Morning Consult | 50.0%Harris 46.0%Trump | +4 Harris |
| Oct 16 – 21 | 3,384 LV | Rasmussen Reports | 50.0%Trump 47.0%Harris | +3 Trump |
| Oct 18 – 20 | 1,254 LV | TIPP Insights | 49.0%Trump 47.0%Harris | +2 Trump |
| Oct 17 – 19 | 1,223 LV | TIPP Insights | 48.0%Harris 47.0%Trump | +1 Harris |
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The polling bias for the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections is based on analysis from the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) comparing actual results to national polls. For the 2018 and 2022 elections, bias was measured by comparing FiveThirtyEight's Generic Ballot polling average with the adjusted US House National Popular vote, using data from the UVA Center for Politics (2018) and DecisionDeskHQ (2022).
Donald Trump
Donald Trump is an American businessman, television personality, and politician who served as the 45th President of the United States from January 2017 to January 2021. Before his presidency, Trump was known for his real estate empire and for hosting the reality TV show, "The Apprentice." His presidency was notable for its non-traditional, often controversial, approach and prioritization of America-first policies. Trump was impeached twice by the House of Representatives, first in 2019 and then in 2021, but was acquitted both times by the Senate.
Kamala Harris
Kamala Harris is an American politician and a member of the Democratic Party who is serving as the Vice President of the United States. Before her vice presidency, she served as Senator for the state of California. Prior to that, she was the Attorney General for California.
