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2024 Presidential Forecast and Predictions

Last Updated: Sunday, July 21 at 3:17 PM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Donald Trump has a 57% chance of winning the Presidency.

Prediction Updates

Last updated on Jul 21 2024 by Decision Desk HQ

A Notice from Decision Desk HQ on our Forecast Models:

Given the unprecedented decision by President Biden to withdraw from the presidential race at this late date, Decision Desk HQ is temporarily freezing our Presidential, Senate, and House forecast models.

The reason for freezing our Presidential model is clear: Democrats have no candidate with the bound delegates needed to win the nomination. If a presumptive nominee emerges before the convention, we will begin to reboot the model; otherwise, we will reboot the model upon a nomination. You’ll likely see a lag between the identification of a nominee (presumptive or official) and the relaunch of our model while we take the needed time to collect and input the new data, primarily polling data, that will enable us to restart the model.

The decision to pause our Senate and House models, the only such models across the major forecasters, is due to the significant correlation between the performance of a Presidential nominee in a state and the performance of their party’s candidates for Congress in that state. Without the ability to reliably forecast the top of the ticket, we cannot accurately model the downballot effects in a given state. (We had planned to publish updated Senate and House models with Q2 FEC data this weekend, along with an updated Presidential model, but given this historic development, we are freezing these models instead.)

Until we relaunch the forecast models, we will continue to collect polls and provide our potential Presidential match-up averages. Our current Trump-Harris polling average and Harris’ current favorability rating remain available.

We look forward to being able to reactivate our forecast models to help you make sense of this historic and unique election.

Electoral College Forecast

To win the Presidency, a candidate must secure 270 of the 538 available electoral votes, distributed among the 50 states and the District of Columbia according to population. Nebraska and Maine have unique systems: they award two electoral votes to the statewide popular vote winner and distribute the remaining votes according to the winners in each congressional district. This map categorizes states by each candidate’s likelihood of winning, ranging from 'safe' to 'likely' to 'lean' to 'toss-up'.

210

Biden

Trump

235

270 For Election

NM5SD3CA54KY8AL9GA16AR6PA19MO10CO10UT6OK7TN11WY3NY28IN11KS6ID4AK3NV6IL19MN10IA6SC9MT4AZ11NE2WA12TX40OH17WI10OR8MS6NC16VA13WV4LA8MI15FL30ND3ME2HI4 1 1 1 1 1

NE

State

2

CD-1

1

CD-2

1

CD-3

1

ME

2
1
1
CT 7
DE 3
DC 3
MD 10
MA 11
NH 4
NJ 14
RI 4
VT 3

Chance of winning the presidency

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. This graph tracks each candidate’s probability of winning the presidential election over time.

Electoral College Projections

Trump: 282

Biden: 256

This graph tracks each candidate’s projected Electoral College vote share over time.

Chance of winning each state

This chart visualizes the current probabilities of each candidate winning individual states. Circles positioned further to the left indicate a higher likelihood of a Biden victory, while circles to the right suggest a stronger chance for Trump. Use the 'DEM' and 'GOP' filters to view states most likely to support their respective party’s nominee.

Electoral College Simulations

These graphs represent the distribution of outcomes from 14,000,605 simulations of the Electoral College vote for Joe Biden and Donald Trump. The outcomes shaded in lighter colors to the left of the dotted line indicate scenarios where a candidate loses, while those in darker colors to the right of the line represent a win. Each bar shows the percentage of simulations resulting in that specific electoral vote count.

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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