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2024 House Forecast and Predictions

Last Updated: Sunday, July 21 at 3:17 PM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Republicans have a 57% chance of winning the House.

Prediction Updates

Last updated on Jul 21 2024 by Decision Desk HQ

A Notice from Decision Desk HQ on our Forecast Models:

Given the unprecedented decision by President Biden to withdraw from the presidential race at this late date, Decision Desk HQ is temporarily freezing our Presidential, Senate, and House forecast models.

The reason for freezing our Presidential model is clear: Democrats have no candidate with the bound delegates needed to win the nomination. If a presumptive nominee emerges before the convention, we will begin to reboot the model; otherwise, we will reboot the model upon a nomination. You’ll likely see a lag between the identification of a nominee (presumptive or official) and the relaunch of our model while we take the needed time to collect and input the new data, primarily polling data, that will enable us to restart the model.

The decision to pause our Senate and House models, the only such models across the major forecasters, is due to the significant correlation between the performance of a Presidential nominee in a state and the performance of their party’s candidates for Congress in that state. Without the ability to reliably forecast the top of the ticket, we cannot accurately model the downballot effects in a given state. (We had planned to publish updated Senate and House models with Q2 FEC data this weekend, along with an updated Presidential model, but given this historic development, we are freezing these models instead.)

Until we relaunch the forecast models, we will continue to collect polls and provide our potential Presidential match-up averages. Our current Trump-Harris polling average and Harris’ current favorability rating remain available.

We look forward to being able to reactivate our forecast models to help you make sense of this historic and unique election.

House Seats Forecast

Elections will be held this November for representatives from all 435 congressional districts across the 50 U.S. states. The House Republican Conference, under the leadership of Mike Johnson since October 2023 following Kevin McCarthy's removal, and the Democrats, now led by Hakeem Jeffries instead of Nancy Pelosi for the first time since 2002, are gearing up for a highly competitive race. Although House Republicans fell short of their lofty expectations in 2022, they managed to flip nine seats, securing a majority and the Speaker's gavel. They must now defend this narrow majority against the Democrats, who hold 213 seats—just five seats shy of the 218 needed to regain control. These maps categorize congressional districts by each party’s likelihood of winning, ranging from 'safe' to 'likely' to 'lean' to 'toss-up'.

208

Democrat

Republican

212

218 for Majority

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Chance of winning the house

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. This graph tracks each party’s probability of winning control of the House over time.

House Seats Projections

Republican: 220

Democrat: 215

This graph tracks each party’s projected seat count in the House over time.

Chance of winning each district

This chart visualizes the current probabilities of each party winning individual races. Circles positioned further to the left indicate a higher likelihood of a Democratic victory, while circles to the right suggest a stronger chance for Republicans. Use the 'DEM' and 'GOP' filters to view states most likely to support the respective parties.

House Seats Simulations

These graphs display the distribution of House seat counts from 14,000,605 simulations for both Democrats and Republicans. The lighter shaded areas to the left of the dotted line depict scenarios where a party fails to secure a majority, while the darker shaded areas to the right represent majority-winning outcomes. Each bar indicates the percentage of simulations resulting in a specific seat count.

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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